IND
DAL
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.1 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Pacers 23rd (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · DAL n/a | IND 35% · DAL 65% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +187 · DAL -187 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 119, Pacers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 12 and Mavericks by 21.
Side by side
| IND | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | DAL 121 @ IND 105 | DAL |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | DAL 134 @ IND 130 | DAL |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | IND 105 @ DAL 107 | DAL |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | DAL 131 @ IND 135 | IND |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | IND 134 @ DAL 127 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works