IND

Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

66% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

IND 34%DEN 66%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
Point differential per game: Nuggets 7th (+4.2), Pacers 26th (-7.5).

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 11 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Pacers 23rd (13.1), Nuggets 30th (11.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -5.3
Total points	n/a	231.9
Win chance	IND n/a · DEN n/a	IND 34% · DEN 66%
Fair moneyline		IND +196 · DEN -196

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 119, Pacers 113.
80% of simulations land between Pacers by 11 and Nuggets by 22.

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Side by side

IND		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
-7.2 26	Net rating	+4.1 7
108.4 27	Offensive rating	118.2 1
115.6 24	Defensive rating	114.1 21
53.3% 22	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
55.4% 22	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.0 12	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
21.8% 29	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
35.3% 20	3-point %	38.8% 1
103.9 9	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2025-12-03	2025-26	DEN 135 @ IND 120	DEN
2025-11-08	2025-26	IND 100 @ DEN 117	DEN
2025-04-06	2024-25	IND 125 @ DEN 120	IND
2025-02-24	2024-25	DEN 125 @ IND 116	DEN
2024-01-23	2023-24	DEN 114 @ IND 109	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

IND

Tyrese Haliburton G

21.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 9.5 ast in 33 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

IND

Pascal Siakam F

24 pts, 6.8 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.1 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

IND

Andrew Nembhard G

16.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 7.7 ast in 31.4 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Pacers 135-120 on the road (2025-12-03). The difference: they shot 69% effective field goal percentage to 60% and they made 17 threes to 13, a 12-point swing. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 52 points.