IND
DET
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
77% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,340 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · DET n/a | IND 23% · DET 77% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +328 · DET -328 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 117, Pacers 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 8 and Pistons by 27.
Side by side
| IND | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | DET 133 @ IND 121 | DET |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | IND 78 @ DET 121 | DET |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | DET 122 @ IND 117 | DET |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | IND 112 @ DET 127 | DET |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | DET 119 @ IND 133 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works