IND
HOU
Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Pacers +0.2.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 1,970 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -11.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.7 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · HOU n/a | IND 20% · HOU 80% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +407 · HOU -407 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 120, Pacers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 6 and Rockets by 28.
Side by side
| IND | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | HOU 118 @ IND 114 | HOU |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | IND 119 @ HOU 126 | HOU |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | HOU 102 @ IND 115 | IND |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | IND 113 @ HOU 130 | HOU |
| 2024-02-06 | 2023-24 | HOU 129 @ IND 132 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works