IND
LAC
Indiana Pacers @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 12 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · LAC n/a | IND 36% · LAC 64% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +174 · LAC -174 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 116, Pacers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 12 and Clippers by 22.
Side by side
| IND | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | LAC 114 @ IND 113 | LAC |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | IND 107 @ LAC 130 | LAC |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | LAC 111 @ IND 129 | IND |
| 2025-02-06 | 2024-25 | IND 119 @ LAC 112 | IND |
| 2024-03-25 | 2023-24 | IND 133 @ LAC 116 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works