IND
LAL
Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,460 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · LAL n/a | IND 25% · LAL 75% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +306 · LAL -306 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 120, Pacers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 8 and Lakers by 25.
Side by side
| IND | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | LAL 137 @ IND 130 | LAL |
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | IND 117 @ LAL 128 | LAL |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | LAL 120 @ IND 119 | LAL |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | IND 117 @ LAL 124 | LAL |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | LAL 90 @ IND 109 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works