IND
MEM
Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Pacers +0.2.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MEM n/a | IND 33% · MEM 67% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +207 · MEM -207 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 119, Pacers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 11 and Grizzlies by 22.
Side by side
| IND | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | MEM 125 @ IND 106 | MEM |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | IND 103 @ MEM 128 | MEM |
| 2025-02-20 | 2024-25 | MEM 113 @ IND 127 | IND |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024-25 | IND 121 @ MEM 136 | MEM |
| 2024-01-28 | 2023-24 | MEM 110 @ IND 116 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works