IND
MIN
Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 7,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Pacers +0.2.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,410 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 8 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 232 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MIN n/a | IND 24% · MIN 76% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +315 · MIN -315 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 121, Pacers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 8 and Timberwolves by 25.
Side by side
| IND | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | MIN 124 @ IND 104 | MIN |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | IND 110 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | MIN 103 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | IND 132 @ MIN 130 | IND |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | MIN 113 @ IND 111 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works