IND
NOP
Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- The Pelicans' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 18th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Pacers 23rd (0.20).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 15 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- History: the Pacers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.5 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · NOP n/a | IND 44% · NOP 56% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +125 · NOP -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 120, Pacers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 15 and Pelicans by 18.
Side by side
| IND | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | IND 123 @ NOP 120 | IND |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | NOP 119 @ IND 127 | IND |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | IND 109 @ NOP 128 | NOP |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | NOP 104 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | NOP 110 @ IND 114 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works