IND
OKC
Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.0 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 7,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,380 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -9.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.9 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · OKC n/a | IND 24% · OKC 76% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +321 · OKC -321 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 118, Pacers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 7 and Thunder by 26.
Side by side
| IND | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | IND 117 @ OKC 114 | IND |
| 2025-10-23 | 2025-26 | OKC 141 @ IND 135 | OKC |
| 2025-06-22 | Playoffs | IND 91 @ OKC 103 | OKC |
| 2025-06-19 | Playoffs | OKC 91 @ IND 108 | IND |
| 2025-06-16 | Playoffs | IND 109 @ OKC 120 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works