IND
ORL
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Simulation: the Magic win 5,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Pacers 23rd (0.20).
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Magic -12.5.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Three-point shooting: Pacers 20th (35.3%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 231 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · ORL n/a | IND 43% · ORL 57% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +134 · ORL -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 117, Pacers 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 14 and Magic by 19.
Side by side
| IND | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | IND 128 @ ORL 126 | IND |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | IND 127 @ ORL 135 | ORL |
| 2025-12-31 | 2025-26 | ORL 112 @ IND 110 | ORL |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | ORL 129 @ IND 115 | ORL |
| 2024-11-13 | 2024-25 | IND 90 @ ORL 94 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works