IND

Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

PHX

Our pick

PHXPhoenix Suns

59% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

IND 41%PHX 59%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Suns can win

Simulation: the Suns win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Pacers 23rd (13.1).

Disadvantages Why Suns may not

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Suns -14.3.
Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 14 or more.
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Suns 28th (71.4%).
Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	PHX -2.8
Total points	n/a	229.6
Win chance	IND n/a · PHX n/a	IND 41% · PHX 59%
Fair moneyline		IND +144 · PHX -144

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Suns 117, Pacers 114.
80% of simulations land between Pacers by 14 and Suns by 20.

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Side by side

IND		PHX
2-3	Record	1-2
-7.2 26	Net rating	+0.2 16
108.4 27	Offensive rating	111.8 17
115.6 24	Defensive rating	111.6 13
53.3% 22	Effective FG%	53.7% 19
55.4% 22	Opponent eFG%	54.3% 16
14.0 12	Turnovers per 100	14.5 19
21.8% 29	Offensive rebound %	28.7% 7
35.3% 20	3-point %	35.9% 13
103.9 9	Pace	100.3 26

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-12	2025-26	PHX 123 @ IND 108	PHX
2025-11-13	2025-26	IND 98 @ PHX 133	PHX
2025-01-04	2024-25	PHX 108 @ IND 126	IND
2024-12-19	2024-25	IND 120 @ PHX 111	IND
2024-01-26	2023-24	PHX 131 @ IND 133	IND

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

IND

Tyrese Haliburton G

21.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 9.5 ast in 33 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

IND

Pascal Siakam F

24 pts, 6.8 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.1 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

IND

Andrew Nembhard G

16.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 7.7 ast in 31.4 min, 44% FG

vs a defense ranked 13 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.3%)

PHX

Devin Booker G

25.5 pts, 3.9 reb, 5.9 ast in 34 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

PHX

Mark Williams C

11.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 1 ast in 23.6 min, 64% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

PHX

Dillon Brooks F

20.2 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.9 ast in 31 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 24 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.4%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Suns beat the Pacers 123-108 on the road (2026-03-12). The difference: they shot 60% effective field goal percentage to 52%. Devin Booker led the Suns with 43 points.