IND
SAC
Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Kings -16.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 6,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.6 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 3,950 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 13 or more.
- Body clock: the Pacers cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.2 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · SAC n/a | IND 60% · SAC 40% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -153 · SAC +153 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 116, Pacers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 20 and Kings by 13.
Side by side
| IND | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-5 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | IND 109 @ SAC 114 | SAC |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-26 | SAC 105 @ IND 116 | IND |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | SAC 109 @ IND 111 | IND |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024-25 | IND 122 @ SAC 95 | IND |
| 2024-02-02 | 2023-24 | SAC 133 @ IND 122 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works