IND
SAS
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,110 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -10.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.1 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · SAS n/a | IND 21% · SAS 79% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +373 · SAS -373 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 120, Pacers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 6 and Spurs by 27.
Side by side
| IND | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | IND 119 @ SAS 134 | SAS |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | SAS 123 @ IND 113 | SAS |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | IND 136 @ SAS 98 | IND |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | SAS 140 @ IND 110 | SAS |
| 2024-03-03 | 2023-24 | IND 105 @ SAS 117 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works