IND
TOR
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pacers +0.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.8 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · TOR n/a | IND 28% · TOR 72% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +259 · TOR -259 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 118, Pacers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 9 and Raptors by 25.
Side by side
| IND | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | IND 104 @ TOR 122 | TOR |
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | TOR 115 @ IND 101 | TOR |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-26 | IND 95 @ TOR 97 | TOR |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | TOR 129 @ IND 111 | TOR |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | TOR 91 @ IND 111 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works