IND
UTA
Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Jazz -7.8.
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Jazz 21st (14.8).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,880 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Pacers cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.7 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · UTA n/a | IND 51% · UTA 49% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -105 · UTA +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 118, Pacers 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 17 and Jazz by 16.
Side by side
| IND | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 131 @ IND 122 | UTA |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | IND 128 @ UTA 152 | UTA |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 112 @ IND 140 | IND |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | IND 112 @ UTA 111 | IND |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023-24 | IND 105 @ UTA 132 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works