IND
WAS
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
50% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Wizards win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Wizards 22nd (23.9%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Relative strength: the Wizards rank 18th of 30 in three-point shooting (35.5%).
- Relative strength: the Wizards rank 21st of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (53.5%).
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Pacers 14th (74.0%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · WAS n/a | IND 50% · WAS 50% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +101 · WAS -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 117, Pacers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 17 and Wizards by 16.
Side by side
| IND | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | IND 118 @ WAS 131 | WAS |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | IND 105 @ WAS 112 | WAS |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | WAS 108 @ IND 89 | WAS |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | WAS 86 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | WAS 98 @ IND 104 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works