LAC
ATL
LA Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Body clock: the Clippers cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,060 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.7 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · ATL n/a | LAC 41% · ATL 59% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +146 · ATL -146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 116, Clippers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 14 and Hawks by 20.
Side by side
| LAC | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-3 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ ATL 92 | LAC |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | ATL 105 @ LAC 102 | ATL |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | LAC 121 @ ATL 98 | LAC |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | ATL 105 @ LAC 131 | LAC |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | ATL 110 @ LAC 93 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works