LAC
BKN
LA Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Clippers win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Clippers cross 3 time zones.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.7 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · BKN n/a | LAC 63% · BKN 37% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -169 · BKN +169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 111, Clippers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 21 and Nets by 12.
Side by side
| LAC | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | BKN 89 @ LAC 126 | LAC |
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | LAC 121 @ BKN 105 | LAC |
| 2025-03-28 | 2024-25 | LAC 132 @ BKN 100 | LAC |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-25 | BKN 67 @ LAC 126 | LAC |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023-24 | BKN 114 @ LAC 125 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works