LAC
BOS
LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Clippers -1.5.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,410 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 223 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · BOS n/a | LAC 34% · BOS 66% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +193 · BOS -193 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 115, Clippers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 12 and Celtics by 22.
Side by side
| LAC | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | BOS 146 @ LAC 115 | BOS |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | LAC 118 @ BOS 121 | BOS |
| 2025-01-22 | 2024-25 | BOS 117 @ LAC 113 | BOS |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | LAC 94 @ BOS 126 | BOS |
| 2024-01-27 | 2023-24 | LAC 115 @ BOS 96 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works