LAC
CHA
LA Clippers @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 16 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Hornets 20th (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 218.9 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CHA n/a | LAC 46% · CHA 54% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +115 · CHA -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 111, Clippers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 16 and Hornets by 18.
Side by side
| LAC | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | CHA 109 @ LAC 117 | LAC |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | LAC 131 @ CHA 116 | LAC |
| 2025-03-16 | 2024-25 | CHA 88 @ LAC 123 | LAC |
| 2025-01-31 | 2024-25 | LAC 112 @ CHA 104 | LAC |
| 2024-03-31 | 2023-24 | LAC 130 @ CHA 118 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works