LAC
CLE
LA Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,180 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 14 or more.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.2 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CLE n/a | LAC 42% · CLE 58% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +139 · CLE -139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 115, Clippers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 14 and Cavaliers by 19.
Side by side
| LAC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | CLE 124 @ LAC 91 | CLE |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | LAC 105 @ CLE 120 | CLE |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | LAC 122 @ CLE 127 | CLE |
| 2025-03-18 | 2024-25 | CLE 119 @ LAC 132 | LAC |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | CLE 118 @ LAC 120 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works