LAC

LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DAL

Our pick

DALDallas Mavericks

55% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

LAC 45%DAL 55%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Mavericks can win

Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
Body clock: the Clippers cross 2 time zones.
Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Clippers 20th (14.7).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mavericks 16th (73.9%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).

Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not

The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.
Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,510 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DAL -1.5
Total points	n/a	227.1
Win chance	LAC n/a · DAL n/a	LAC 45% · DAL 55%
Fair moneyline		LAC +122 · DAL -122

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Mavericks 115, Clippers 113.
80% of simulations land between Clippers by 15 and Mavericks by 18.

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Side by side

LAC		DAL
1-3	Record	3-2
+0.9 15	Net rating	-4.8 23
114.0 10	Offensive rating	108.7 26
113.0 18	Defensive rating	113.5 20
55.9% 4	Effective FG%	52.9% 25
54.6% 18	Opponent eFG%	54.5% 17
14.7 20	Turnovers per 100	14.0 13
23.8% 24	Offensive rebound %	23.4% 25
36.9% 5	3-point %	34.4% 26
99.6 29	Pace	105.0 4

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-07	2025-26	DAL 103 @ LAC 116	LAC
2026-03-21	2025-26	LAC 138 @ DAL 131	LAC
2025-11-29	2025-26	DAL 114 @ LAC 110	DAL
2025-11-14	2025-26	LAC 133 @ DAL 127	LAC
2025-04-05	2024-25	DAL 104 @ LAC 135	LAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

LAC

Darius Garland G

20.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast in 29.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

LAC

Keaton Wagler G

15 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.5 ast in 26.8 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

LAC

Derrick Jones Jr. F

10.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.4 ast in 27.1 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Clippers beat the Mavericks 116-103 at home (2026-04-07). The difference: they shot 52% effective field goal percentage to 38% and they made 14 threes to 6, a 24-point swing. Kawhi Leonard led the Clippers with 34 points.