LAC

LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

LAC 43%DEN 57%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Clippers 15th (+0.9).

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 13th.
The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 14 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -2.2
Total points	n/a	226.4
Win chance	LAC n/a · DEN n/a	LAC 43% · DEN 57%
Fair moneyline		LAC +131 · DEN -131

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 115, Clippers 112.
80% of simulations land between Clippers by 14 and Nuggets by 19.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

LAC		DEN
1-3	Record	2-2
+0.9 15	Net rating	+4.1 7
114.0 10	Offensive rating	118.2 1
113.0 18	Defensive rating	114.1 21
55.9% 4	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
54.6% 18	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.7 20	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
23.8% 24	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
36.9% 5	3-point %	38.8% 1
99.6 29	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-02-19	2025-26	DEN 114 @ LAC 115	LAC
2026-01-30	2025-26	LAC 109 @ DEN 122	DEN
2025-11-12	2025-26	DEN 130 @ LAC 116	DEN
2025-05-03	Playoffs	LAC 101 @ DEN 120	DEN
2025-05-01	Playoffs	DEN 105 @ LAC 111	LAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

LAC

Darius Garland G

20.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast in 29.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

LAC

Keaton Wagler G

15 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.5 ast in 26.8 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

LAC

Derrick Jones Jr. F

10.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.4 ast in 27.1 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Clippers beat the Nuggets 115-114 at home (2026-02-19). The box score was close to even; it came down to the last few possessions. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 38 points.