LAC
DET
LA Clippers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Clippers -1.5.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,190 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- History: the Clippers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 219.8 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · DET n/a | LAC 32% · DET 68% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +214 · DET -214 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 113, Clippers 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 11 and Pistons by 23.
Side by side
| LAC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | LAC 98 @ DET 92 | LAC |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | DET 99 @ LAC 112 | LAC |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | DET 115 @ LAC 123 | LAC |
| 2025-02-24 | 2024-25 | LAC 97 @ DET 106 | DET |
| 2024-02-10 | 2023-24 | DET 106 @ LAC 112 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works