LAC
HOU
LA Clippers @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Clippers -1.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 7,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 2,660 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 9 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Rockets 18th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Clippers 20th (14.7), Rockets 26th (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -8.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.1 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · HOU n/a | LAC 27% · HOU 73% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +275 · HOU -275 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 116, Clippers 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 9 and Rockets by 25.
Side by side
| LAC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | LAC 105 @ HOU 102 | LAC |
| 2026-02-10 | 2025-26 | LAC 95 @ HOU 102 | HOU |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | HOU 108 @ LAC 128 | LAC |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-26 | LAC 113 @ HOU 115 | HOU |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | HOU 117 @ LAC 134 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works