LAC
MIA
LA Clippers @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Heat defense that ranks 14th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Heat -7.8.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Heat 16th (0.21).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,840 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · MIA n/a | LAC 52% · MIA 48% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -107 · MIA +107 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 116, Clippers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 17 and Heat by 16.
Side by side
| LAC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | LAC 123 @ MIA 140 | MIA |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | MIA 120 @ LAC 119 | MIA |
| 2025-03-12 | 2024-25 | LAC 119 @ MIA 104 | LAC |
| 2025-01-13 | 2024-25 | MIA 98 @ LAC 109 | LAC |
| 2024-02-04 | 2023-24 | LAC 103 @ MIA 95 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works