LAC
MIN
LA Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Clippers -1.5.
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 6,760 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Timberwolves' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 9th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,240 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 11 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Timberwolves 15th (0.21).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.5 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · MIN n/a | LAC 32% · MIN 68% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +208 · MIN -208 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 116, Clippers 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 11 and Timberwolves by 22.
Side by side
| LAC | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ LAC 153 | LAC |
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | MIN 94 @ LAC 88 | MIN |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ MIN 96 | LAC |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | LAC 106 @ MIN 109 | MIN |
| 2025-01-06 | 2024-25 | LAC 106 @ MIN 108 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works