LAC
NOP
LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Pelicans 25th (34.4%).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 231 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NOP n/a | LAC 53% · NOP 47% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -115 · NOP +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 115, Clippers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 18 and Pelicans by 16.
Side by side
| LAC | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | LAC 99 @ NOP 105 | NOP |
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | LAC 109 @ NOP 124 | NOP |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | NOP 117 @ LAC 137 | LAC |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | NOP 124 @ LAC 126 | LAC |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | NOP 98 @ LAC 114 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works