LAC
NYK
LA Clippers @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Simulation: the Knicks win 6,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,430 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 11 or more.
- History: the Clippers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 220.3 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NYK n/a | LAC 34% · NYK 66% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +191 · NYK -191 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 113, Clippers 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 11 and Knicks by 22.
Side by side
| LAC | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | NYK 118 @ LAC 126 | LAC |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | LAC 111 @ NYK 123 | NYK |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | LAC 126 @ NYK 113 | LAC |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | NYK 95 @ LAC 105 | LAC |
| 2023-12-16 | 2023-24 | NYK 122 @ LAC 144 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works