LAC
OKC
LA Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,210 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Thunder 14th (0.21).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.3 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · OKC n/a | LAC 32% · OKC 68% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +212 · OKC -212 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 114, Clippers 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 11 and Thunder by 23.
Side by side
| LAC | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | LAC 101 @ OKC 108 | OKC |
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | OKC 128 @ LAC 110 | OKC |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | LAC 101 @ OKC 122 | OKC |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-26 | OKC 126 @ LAC 107 | OKC |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | OKC 103 @ LAC 101 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works