LAC
ORL
LA Clippers @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Magic -12.5.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Magic defense that ranks 9th.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Clippers cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · ORL n/a | LAC 52% · ORL 48% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -109 · ORL +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 113, Clippers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 18 and Magic by 16.
Side by side
| LAC | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | ORL 111 @ LAC 109 | ORL |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | LAC 101 @ ORL 129 | ORL |
| 2025-03-31 | 2024-25 | LAC 96 @ ORL 87 | LAC |
| 2024-11-20 | 2024-25 | ORL 93 @ LAC 104 | LAC |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | LAC 100 @ ORL 97 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works