LAC
PHI
LA Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Body clock: the Clippers cross 3 time zones.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): 76ers 18th (25.1%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 11th.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.2 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · PHI n/a | LAC 43% · PHI 57% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +130 · PHI -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 113, Clippers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 15 and 76ers by 19.
Side by side
| LAC | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | 2025-26 | PHI 128 @ LAC 113 | PHI |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | LAC 108 @ PHI 110 | PHI |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | LAC 125 @ PHI 99 | LAC |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | PHI 98 @ LAC 110 | LAC |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | LAC 108 @ PHI 107 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works