LAC
PHX
LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Suns -14.3.
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Suns 28th (0.18).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,880 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 17 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Clippers 14th (14.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.1 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · PHX n/a | LAC 51% · PHX 49% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -105 · PHX +105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 112, Clippers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 17 and Suns by 17.
Side by side
| LAC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | LAC 117 @ PHX 93 | LAC |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | PHX 114 @ LAC 103 | PHX |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-26 | LAC 102 @ PHX 115 | PHX |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | PHX 102 @ LAC 129 | LAC |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | LAC 117 @ PHX 119 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works