LAC
POR
LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Clippers -1.5.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,180 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 12th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Clippers 20th (14.7), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.8 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · POR n/a | LAC 42% · POR 58% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +139 · POR -139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 115, Clippers 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 14 and Trail Blazers by 19.
Side by side
| LAC | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | LAC 97 @ POR 116 | POR |
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | POR 114 @ LAC 104 | POR |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | LAC 119 @ POR 103 | LAC |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | POR 107 @ LAC 114 | LAC |
| 2025-01-16 | 2024-25 | LAC 118 @ POR 89 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works