LAC

LA Clippers @ Sacramento Kings

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

SAC

Our pick

LACLA Clippers

69% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

LAC 69%SAC 31%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Clippers can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.5 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Clippers -1.5, Kings -16.6.
Simulation: the Clippers win 6,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Kings 29th (-10.1).

Disadvantages Why Clippers may not

Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Kings win 3,110 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 10 or more.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Kings 14th (25.8%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	LAC -6.4
Total points	n/a	228.6
Win chance	LAC n/a · SAC n/a	LAC 69% · SAC 31%
Fair moneyline		LAC -221 · SAC +221

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Kings 111, Clippers 118.
80% of simulations land between Clippers by 23 and Kings by 10.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

LAC		SAC
1-3	Record	0-5
+0.9 15	Net rating	-10.1 29
114.0 10	Offensive rating	108.3 28
113.0 18	Defensive rating	118.5 28
55.9% 4	Effective FG%	52.4% 29
54.6% 18	Opponent eFG%	57.3% 29
14.7 20	Turnovers per 100	14.1 14
23.8% 24	Offensive rebound %	25.8% 14
36.9% 5	3-point %	33.8% 30
99.6 29	Pace	102.4 16

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-21	2026-27	SAC 96 @ LAC 121	LAC
2026-04-05	2025-26	LAC 138 @ SAC 109	LAC
2026-03-14	2025-26	SAC 118 @ LAC 109	SAC
2026-02-06	2025-26	LAC 114 @ SAC 111	LAC
2025-12-30	2025-26	SAC 90 @ LAC 131	LAC

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

LAC

Darius Garland G

20.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.5 ast in 29.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

LAC

Keaton Wagler G

15 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.5 ast in 26.8 min, 32% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

LAC

Derrick Jones Jr. F

10.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 1.4 ast in 27.1 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 28 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.3%)

SAC

Domantas Sabonis F

16.1 pts, 12.4 reb, 4.8 ast in 31.2 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

SAC

Zach LaVine G

20 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.4 ast in 32 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

SAC

Darius Acuff Jr. G

24 pts, 3.4 reb, 6.6 ast in 36.4 min, 38% FG

vs a defense ranked 18 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Clippers beat the Kings 121-96 at home (2026-10-21). The difference: they shot 61% effective field goal percentage to 47% and they made 14 threes to 8, a 18-point swing. Darius Garland led the Clippers with 30 points.