LAC
SAS
LA Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Clippers 15th (+0.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Clippers -1.5.
- The Spurs' offense (115.2 points per 100 possessions, 5th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 10 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Clippers 14th (14.5), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Three-point shooting: Clippers 5th (36.9%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.5 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · SAS n/a | LAC 28% · SAS 72% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +252 · SAS -252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 116, Clippers 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 10 and Spurs by 24.
Side by side
| LAC | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | 2025-26 | SAS 118 @ LAC 99 | SAS |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | SAS 119 @ LAC 115 | SAS |
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | LAC 112 @ SAS 116 | SAS |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | SAS 117 @ LAC 122 | LAC |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | LAC 128 @ SAS 116 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works