LAC
UTA
LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 13 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.1 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · UTA n/a | LAC 60% · UTA 40% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -147 · UTA +147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 114, Clippers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 20 and Jazz by 13.
Side by side
| LAC | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ UTA 103 | LAC |
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | UTA 101 @ LAC 118 | LAC |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | LAC 108 @ UTA 129 | UTA |
| 2025-02-13 | 2024-25 | LAC 120 @ UTA 116 | LAC |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | UTA 110 @ LAC 130 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works