LAC
WAS
LA Clippers @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Clippers cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · WAS n/a | LAC 59% · WAS 41% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -145 · WAS +145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 113, Clippers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 20 and Wizards by 14.
Side by side
| LAC | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +0.9 15 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 114.0 10 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 113.0 18 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.9% 4 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.6% 18 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 23.8% 24 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | LAC 110 @ WAS 106 | LAC |
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | WAS 105 @ LAC 119 | LAC |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | WAS 93 @ LAC 110 | LAC |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | LAC 121 @ WAS 96 | LAC |
| 2024-03-01 | 2023-24 | WAS 115 @ LAC 140 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works