LAL
ATL
Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 11th.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hawks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · ATL n/a | LAL 52% · ATL 48% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -109 · ATL +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 116, Lakers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 18 and Hawks by 16.
Side by side
| LAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | ATL 116 @ LAL 141 | LAL |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | LAL 102 @ ATL 122 | ATL |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | ATL 102 @ LAL 119 | LAL |
| 2024-12-06 | 2024-25 | LAL 132 @ ATL 134 | ATL |
| 2024-03-18 | 2023-24 | ATL 105 @ LAL 136 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works