LAL
BKN
Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,610 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.7 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · BKN n/a | LAL 74% · BKN 26% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -283 · BKN +283 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 111, Lakers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 25 and Nets by 9.
Side by side
| LAL | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ LAL 116 | LAL |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | LAL 125 @ BKN 109 | LAL |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | LAL 108 @ BKN 111 | BKN |
| 2025-01-17 | 2024-25 | BKN 101 @ LAL 102 | LAL |
| 2024-03-31 | 2023-24 | LAL 116 @ BKN 104 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works