LAL
BOS
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Lakers 11th (14.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.9 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · BOS n/a | LAL 46% · BOS 55% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +120 · BOS -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 114, Lakers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 15 and Celtics by 18.
Side by side
| LAL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ LAL 89 | BOS |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | LAL 105 @ BOS 126 | BOS |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | LAL 101 @ BOS 111 | BOS |
| 2025-01-23 | 2024-25 | BOS 96 @ LAL 117 | LAL |
| 2024-02-01 | 2023-24 | LAL 114 @ BOS 105 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works