LAL
CHA
Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Hornets -7.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hornets defense that ranks 10th.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hornets 4th (30.5%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.8 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · CHA n/a | LAL 59% · CHA 41% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -142 · CHA +142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 110, Lakers 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 20 and Hornets by 14.
Side by side
| LAL | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | CHA 135 @ LAL 117 | CHA |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | LAL 121 @ CHA 111 | LAL |
| 2025-02-19 | 2024-25 | CHA 100 @ LAL 97 | CHA |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | LAL 112 @ CHA 107 | LAL |
| 2024-02-05 | 2023-24 | LAL 124 @ CHA 118 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works