LAL
DET
Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 5,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- The Pistons' offense (113.2 points per 100 possessions, 12th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Lakers win 4,160 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Three-point shooting: Lakers 9th (36.3%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.7 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · DET n/a | LAL 42% · DET 58% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL +140 · DET -140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 114, Lakers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 14 and Pistons by 19.
Side by side
| LAL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | LAL 110 @ DET 113 | DET |
| 2025-12-30 | 2025-26 | DET 128 @ LAL 106 | DET |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | DET 117 @ LAL 114 | DET |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | LAL 103 @ DET 115 | DET |
| 2024-02-13 | 2023-24 | DET 111 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works