LAL

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

HOU

Our pick

HOUHouston Rockets

63% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

LAL 37%HOU 63%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Rockets can win

Simulation: the Rockets win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Rockets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 8th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Lakers 13th (+1.5).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Rockets in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Rockets may not

Upset odds: the Lakers win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Rockets defense that ranks 6th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Lakers 2nd (0.25), Rockets 18th (0.20).
Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	HOU -4.2
Total points	n/a	227.1
Win chance	LAL n/a · HOU n/a	LAL 37% · HOU 63%
Fair moneyline		LAL +168 · HOU -168

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Rockets 116, Lakers 112.
80% of simulations land between Lakers by 12 and Rockets by 21.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

LAL		HOU
4-1	Record	5-0
+1.5 13	Net rating	+5.2 6
114.7 6	Offensive rating	114.6 8
113.2 19	Defensive rating	109.4 6
57.2% 1	Effective FG%	54.0% 18
55.2% 20	Opponent eFG%	53.0% 6
14.9 22	Turnovers per 100	15.4 26
24.2% 21	Offensive rebound %	34.3% 1
36.3% 9	3-point %	36.2% 11
100.5 23	Pace	100.0 27

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-05-01	Playoffs	LAL 98 @ HOU 78	LAL
2026-04-29	Playoffs	HOU 99 @ LAL 93	HOU
2026-04-26	Playoffs	LAL 96 @ HOU 115	HOU
2026-04-24	Playoffs	LAL 112 @ HOU 108	LAL
2026-04-21	Playoffs	HOU 94 @ LAL 101	LAL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

LAL

Luka Doncic G

33.6 pts, 7.7 reb, 8.3 ast in 35.8 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

LAL

Austin Reaves G

23 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.5 ast in 34.8 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

LAL

Walker Kessler C

14.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 1 ast in 30.4 min, 75% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 19 of 30 (opponent eFG% 55.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Lakers beat the Rockets 98-78 on the road (West 1st Round - Game 6). The difference: they shot 47% effective field goal percentage to 38% and they made 12 threes to 5, a 21-point swing. LeBron James led the Lakers with 28 points.