LAL
IND
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 3,470 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 11 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · IND n/a | LAL 65% · IND 35% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -188 · IND +188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 113, Lakers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 22 and Pacers by 11.
Side by side
| LAL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | LAL 137 @ IND 130 | LAL |
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | IND 117 @ LAL 128 | LAL |
| 2025-03-26 | 2024-25 | LAL 120 @ IND 119 | LAL |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | IND 117 @ LAL 124 | LAL |
| 2024-03-29 | 2023-24 | LAL 90 @ IND 109 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works