LAL
LAC
Los Angeles Lakers @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Clippers -1.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 19th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.8 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · LAC n/a | LAL 56% · LAC 44% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -125 · LAC +125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 112, Lakers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 19 and Clippers by 15.
Side by side
| LAL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | LAL 103 @ LAC 87 | LAL |
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | LAC 117 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | LAC 122 @ LAL 125 | LAL |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | LAL 104 @ LAC 112 | LAC |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | LAL 88 @ LAC 103 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works