LAL
MEM
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 2 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.9 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · MEM n/a | LAL 53% · MEM 47% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -114 · MEM +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 115, Lakers 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 18 and Grizzlies by 16.
Side by side
| LAL | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | MEM 114 @ LAL 120 | LAL |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | MEM 121 @ LAL 128 | LAL |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | LAL 117 @ MEM 112 | LAL |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | LAL 134 @ MEM 127 | LAL |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | MEM 110 @ LAL 116 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works