LAL
MIL
Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Bucks -10.8.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.5 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 2,650 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.8 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · MIL n/a | LAL 74% · MIL 26% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -277 · MIL +277 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 111, Lakers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 25 and Bucks by 9.
Side by side
| LAL | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 2025-26 | MIL 105 @ LAL 101 | MIL |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-26 | LAL 119 @ MIL 95 | LAL |
| 2025-03-20 | 2024-25 | MIL 118 @ LAL 89 | MIL |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | LAL 106 @ MIL 126 | MIL |
| 2024-03-26 | 2023-24 | LAL 128 @ MIL 124 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works