LAL
NOP
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Pelicans -2.2.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 12 or more.
- Body clock: the Lakers cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.9 |
| Win chance | LAL n/a · NOP n/a | LAL 65% · NOP 35% |
| Fair moneyline | LAL -186 · NOP +186 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 115, Lakers 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Lakers by 21 and Pelicans by 12.
Side by side
| LAL | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.5 13 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 114.7 6 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 113.2 19 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 57.2% 1 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 55.2% 20 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 14.9 22 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 24.2% 21 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 36.3% 9 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 100.5 23 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | NOP 101 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2026-01-06 | 2025-26 | LAL 111 @ NOP 103 | LAL |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | NOP 121 @ LAL 133 | LAL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | LAL 118 @ NOP 104 | LAL |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | NOP 108 @ LAL 124 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works